Hypotheses · age-bumper · H180-late-starter-in-a-bumper
H180: late starter in a bumper
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 1389 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H180: late starter in a bumper” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: a bumper newcomer aged six or more. A bumper horse that has not run by six has been hard to train.
The rule
race_type = 'Bumper' AND age >= 6 AND prior_runs = 0
Reads: race_type, age, prior_runs
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Bumper' AND age >= 6 AND prior_runs = 0
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 1,389
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -33.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +21.2%
- 163 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 7.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H180-late-starter-in-a-bumper Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.001 on 1389 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H180-late-starter-in-a-bumper (broad): info
· importer
New idea H180-late-starter-in-a-bumper: H180: late starter in a bumper (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.