Threads · track-stamina · H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track
H183: first try at a longer trip in the mud at a stiff track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track (H183: first try at a longer trip in the mud at a stiff track) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.14 on 2858 bets (periods 1.09 / 1.18 / 1.08); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H183: first try at a longer trip in the mud at a stiff track PROMISING green
because NEGATIVE: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the hardest place to find out whether it stays.
(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.14 on 2,858 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.18 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +31.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: all. On
Where it started
NEGATIVE: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the hardest place to find out whether it stays.