H183: first try at a longer trip in the mud at a stiff track

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: up 15%+ in trip, never tried within a furlong of it, on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track: the hardest place to find out whether it stays.

The rule

(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Reads: track_stamina_test, track_stiff_finish, going_group, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, runs_at_trip, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info first three in the betting · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

864

A/E

1.12

winners vs the prices

SP return

-4.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-24.0%

128 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 24.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.136 on 2858 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H183-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track: H183: first try at a longer trip in the mud at a stiff track (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.