H185: back on its only winning hand

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H185: back on its only winning hand KILLED red

   because Two or more wins, every one of them on today's hand, and beaten last time going the other way. Horses lead with one leg and jump to one side; the form figure does not say which way round it was.

   track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND last_track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND track_direction != last_track_direction AND prior_wins >= 2 AND prior_direction_wins = prior_wins AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.02 on 13,089 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.03 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -10.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H185: back on its only winning hand

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223,8661.06

   2023 to a year ago6,8011.03

   Last year2,4220.95

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H185: back on its only winning hand Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 13089 bets (broad RED)