Hypotheses · track-hand · H185-back-on-its-only-winning-hand
H185: back on its only winning hand
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 13089 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H185: back on its only winning hand” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Two or more wins, every one of them on today's hand, and beaten last time going the other way. Horses lead with one leg and jump to one side; the form figure does not say which way round it was.
The rule
track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND last_track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND track_direction != last_track_direction AND prior_wins >= 2 AND prior_direction_wins = prior_wins AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)Reads: track_direction, last_track_direction, prior_wins, prior_direction_wins, last_position
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND last_track_direction IN ('left', 'right') AND track_direction != last_track_direction AND prior_wins >= 2 AND prior_direction_wins = prior_wins AND (last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 13,089
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -20.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -10.2%
- 2,417 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H185-back-on-its-only-winning-hand Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.022 on 13089 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H185-back-on-its-only-winning-hand (broad): info
· importer
New idea H185-back-on-its-only-winning-hand: H185: back on its only winning hand (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.