H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: at most one chase run, at a track with stiff fences. The price is built on hurdles form; the fences ask a question it has not answered.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs <= 1 AND track_fences = 'stiff'

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 4,609 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.95 · 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return -9.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,7731.04

   2023 to a year ago1,3620.95

   Last year474

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.007 on 4609 bets (broad RED)