Hypotheses · track-fences · H189-inexperienced-chaser-at-stiff-fences
H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.007 on 4609 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: at most one chase run, at a track with stiff fences. The price is built on hurdles form; the fences ask a question it has not answered.
The rule
race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs <= 1 AND track_fences = 'stiff'
Reads: race_type, chase_runs, track_fences
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Chase' AND chase_runs <= 1 AND track_fences = 'stiff'
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 4,609
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -12.8%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -9.0%
- 474 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 14.1%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H189-inexperienced-chaser-at-stiff-fences Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.007 on 4609 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H189-inexperienced-chaser-at-stiff-fences (broad): info
· importer
New idea H189-inexperienced-chaser-at-stiff-fences: H189: inexperienced chaser at stiff fences (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.