H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences PROMISING green

   because Twelve or more chases behind it, in a handicap chase at a track with stiff fences: where others make mistakes, a proven jumper gains lengths for nothing, and its exposed form keeps the price up.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff'

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 2,968 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.05 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return +33.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.06). Zone: all. On H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224291.03

   2023 to a year ago1,7921.05

   Last year7471.09

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   high-casualty track: A/E 1.08 on 951 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.07 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +8.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221641.09

   2023 to a year ago5581.07

   Last year2291.11

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   field of 10 or more: A/E 1.06 on 1,136 bets, by period 0.74 · 1.06 · 1.22. info

   Betfair SP return +86.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.74 to 1.22. Zone: all. On H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221290.74

   2023 to a year ago7671.06

   Last year240

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.04 on 1,940 bets, by period 0.95 · 1.07 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +10.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222960.95

   2023 to a year ago1,1401.07

   Last year5041.05

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [high-casualty track] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 951 bets (broad GREEN)

7. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences (H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 2968 bets (periods 1.03 / 1.05 / 1.09); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences