H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences

Mechanism and rationale

Twelve or more chases behind it, in a handicap chase at a track with stiff fences: where others make mistakes, a proven jumper gains lengths for nothing, and its exposed form keeps the price up.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff'

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, chase_runs, track_fences

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff'

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "high-casualty track",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff') AND (track_casualties = 'high')"
  },
  {
    "name": "field of 10 or more",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff') AND (field_size >= 10)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND is_handicap = 1 AND chase_runs >= 12 AND track_fences = 'stiff') AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,940

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+10.7%

504 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [high-casualty track] GREEN A/E 1.081 on 951 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences (field of 10 or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences (high-casualty track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H190-seasoned-chaser-at-stiff-fences: H190: seasoned chaser at stiff fences (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.