H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences KILLED amber

   because Made a jumping error in a chase last time; today's fences are easy ones. The fault that beat it is the one today's track forgives.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy'

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.09 on 706 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return -0.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.01). Zone: all. On H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4511.09

   Later half2551.08

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   fell or unseated last time: A/E 1.12 on 43 bets. info

   Betfair SP return -23.4%. Zone: all. On H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half27–

   Later half16–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.10 on 542 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return +4.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3351.13

   Later half2071.06

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.11 on 619 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.06. info

   Betfair SP return +2.0%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3741.15

   Later half2451.06

6. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [fell or unseated last time] AMBER A/E 1.117 on 43 bets (broad AMBER)