H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences

Mechanism and rationale

Made a jumping error in a chase last time; today's fences are easy ones. The fault that beat it is the one today's track forgives.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy'

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, last_jumping_error, track_fences

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy'

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "fell or unseated last time",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy') AND (last_fell_or_unseated = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy') AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND last_race_type = 'Chase' AND last_jumping_error = 1 AND track_fences = 'easy') AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

619

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.0%

613 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [fell or unseated last time] AMBER A/E 1.117 on 43 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences (fell or unseated last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H191-jumping-error-last-time-now-at-easy-fences: H191: jumping error last time now at easy fences (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.