Threads · track-weight · H192-top-weight-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track
H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.0 on 2120 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: top weight in a jumps handicap on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track. Weight tells most where the race is slowest and longest; the market prices the class.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.00 on 2,120 bets, by period 0.86 · 1.06 · 1.12. info
Betfair SP return -7.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.86 to 1.12. Zone: all. On H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228160.862023 to a year ago1,0231.06Last year281Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.0 on 2120 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: top weight in a jumps handicap on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track. Weight tells most where the race is slowest and longest; the market prices the class.