Hypotheses · track-weight · H192-top-weight-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track
H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.0 on 2120 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: top weight in a jumps handicap on soft or heavy at a stiff or stamina-testing track. Weight tells most where the race is slowest and longest; the market prices the class.
The rule
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)Reads: race_type, is_handicap, weight_rank_high, going_group, track_stamina_test, track_stiff_finish
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_high = 1 AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND (track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1)
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 2,120
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -22.5%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -7.2%
- 281 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.8%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H192-top-weight-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.0 on 2120 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H192-top-weight-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track (broad): info
· importer
New idea H192-top-weight-in-the-mud-at-a-stiff-track: H192: top weight in the mud at a stiff track (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.