H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race PROMISING negative

   because One of the two lightest in a jumps handicap of three miles or more on heavy ground: the other side of the same coin.

   race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.84 on 726 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.92 · 0.64. info

   Betfair SP return -64.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222870.78

   2023 to a year ago3310.92

   Last year108

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase: A/E 0.80 on 503 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.82 · 0.72. info

   Betfair SP return -61.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222000.79

   2023 to a year ago2350.82

   Last year680.72

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   stiff or stamina-testing track: A/E 0.78 on 306 bets, by period 0.74 · 0.82 · 0.73. info

   Betfair SP return -51.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221180.74

   2023 to a year ago1400.82

   Last year48

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.85 on 514 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.89 · 0.70. info

   Betfair SP return -45.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221770.82

   2023 to a year ago2660.89

   Last year71

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [stiff or stamina-testing track] NEGATIVE A/E 0.784 on 306 bets (broad NEGATIVE)