H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race

Mechanism and rationale

One of the two lightest in a jumps handicap of three miles or more on heavy ground: the other side of the same coin.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, weight_rank_low, going_group, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "stiff or stamina-testing track",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND ((track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low <= 2 AND going_group = 'heavy' AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

514

A/E

0.85

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-45.9%

71 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [stiff or stamina-testing track] NEGATIVE A/E 0.784 on 306 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race (stiff or stamina-testing track): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race (chase): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H193-light-weight-in-a-heavy-ground-stamina-race: H193: light weight in a heavy ground stamina race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.