Threads · track-named · H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before
H198: been round the national fences before
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before (H198: been round the national fences before) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.84 on 334 bets (periods 1.05 / 0.64 / 0.90).
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H198: been round the national fences before KILLED red
because Aintree's races over the National fences (Grand National, Topham, Becher, Grand Sefton, Foxhunters'): a horse that has run at Aintree before. The fences, the drops and the pace are unlike anything else, and a clear round there is knowledge.
course = 'AINTREE' AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_course_runs >= 1 AND (race_name LIKE '%Grand National%' OR race_name LIKE '%Topham%' OR race_name LIKE '%Becher%' OR race_name LIKE '%Sefton%' OR race_name LIKE '%Fox%unters%')
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.84 on 334 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.64 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return -50.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.64 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H198: been round the national fences before
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22991.052023 to a year ago1580.64Last year770.90Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.00 on 124 bets, by period 1.28 · 0.82. info
Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.28. Zone: all. On H198: been round the national fences before
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22421.282023 to a year ago570.82Last year25–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
finished last time at Aintree... two or more runs there: A/E 0.70 on 149 bets, by period 0.28. info
Betfair SP return -20.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H198: been round the national fences before
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-2232–2023 to a year ago790.28Last year38–Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H198: been round the national fences before Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 0.996 on 124 bets (broad RED)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before (H198: been round the national fences before) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.84 on 334 bets (periods 1.05 / 0.64 / 0.90).
surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before
Where it started
Aintree's races over the National fences (Grand National, Topham, Becher, Grand Sefton, Foxhunters'): a horse that has run at Aintree before. The fences, the drops and the pace are unlike anything else, and a clear round there is knowledge.