H198: been round the national fences before

Mechanism and rationale

Aintree's races over the National fences (Grand National, Topham, Becher, Grand Sefton, Foxhunters'): a horse that has run at Aintree before. The fences, the drops and the pace are unlike anything else, and a clear round there is knowledge.

The rule

course = 'AINTREE' AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_course_runs >= 1 AND (race_name LIKE '%Grand National%' OR race_name LIKE '%Topham%' OR race_name LIKE '%Becher%' OR race_name LIKE '%Sefton%' OR race_name LIKE '%Fox%unters%')

Reads: course, race_type, prior_course_runs, race_name

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

course = 'AINTREE' AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_course_runs >= 1 AND (race_name LIKE '%Grand National%' OR race_name LIKE '%Topham%' OR race_name LIKE '%Becher%' OR race_name LIKE '%Sefton%' OR race_name LIKE '%Fox%unters%')

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(course = 'AINTREE' AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_course_runs >= 1 AND (race_name LIKE '%Grand National%' OR race_name LIKE '%Topham%' OR race_name LIKE '%Becher%' OR race_name LIKE '%Sefton%' OR race_name LIKE '%Fox%unters%')) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "finished last time at Aintree... two or more runs there",
    "rule": "(course = 'AINTREE' AND race_type = 'Chase' AND prior_course_runs >= 1 AND (race_name LIKE '%Grand National%' OR race_name LIKE '%Topham%' OR race_name LIKE '%Becher%' OR race_name LIKE '%Sefton%' OR race_name LIKE '%Fox%unters%')) AND (prior_course_runs >= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info finished last time at Aintree... two or more runs there · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

149

A/E

0.70

winners vs the prices

SP return

-70.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-20.8%

38 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 3.4%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [14/1 or shorter] RED A/E 0.996 on 124 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before (finished last time at Aintree... two or more runs there): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H198-been-round-the-national-fences-before: H198: been round the national fences before (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.