H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot PROMISING negative

   because Second favourite in a race with an odds-on favourite: the money piles on the hot one and the only realistic danger is left alone.

   favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.94 on 14,001 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.91 · 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return +4.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225,5020.93

   2023 to a year ago5,9400.91

   Last year2,559

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   field of eight or more: A/E 0.90 on 6,171 bets, by period 0.89 · 0.87 · 0.97. info

   Betfair SP return +0.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,5680.89

   2023 to a year ago2,6020.87

   Last year1,001

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not a handicap: A/E 0.94 on 10,664 bets, by period 0.93 · 0.91 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +8.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-224,2540.93

   2023 to a year ago4,5300.91

   Last year1,880

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 0.94 on 6,117 bets, by period 0.94 · 0.91 · 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return +5.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222,4590.94

   2023 to a year ago2,5760.91

   Last year1,082

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite at 1/2 or shorter: A/E 0.87 on 4,173 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.82 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return +4.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,6240.88

   2023 to a year ago1,7660.82

   Last year783

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [favourite at 1/2 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.87 on 4173 bets (broad RED)