H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot

Mechanism and rationale

Second favourite in a race with an odds-on favourite: the money piles on the hot one and the only realistic danger is left alone.

The rule

favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2

Reads: favourite_sp, sp_rank

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "field of eight or more",
    "rule": "(favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2) AND (field_size >= 8)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not a handicap",
    "rule": "(favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2) AND (is_handicap = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "favourite at 1/2 or shorter",
    "rule": "(favourite_sp < 2 AND sp_rank = 2) AND (favourite_sp <= 1.5)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info favourite at 1/2 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,173

A/E

0.87

winners vs the prices

SP return

-28.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+4.9%

779 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [favourite at 1/2 or shorter] NEGATIVE A/E 0.87 on 4173 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot (favourite at 1/2 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot (not a handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot (field of eight or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H201-second-favourite-behind-an-odds-on-shot: H201: second favourite behind an odds on shot (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.