Threads · race-betting · H202-short-priced-favourite-in-a-big-handicap
H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 2396 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap KILLED red
because 2/1 or shorter in a handicap of 12+ runners. Nobody takes 2/1 about one of twelve handicappers without knowing something: the 'handicap good thing' is informed money.
is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 12 AND sp_decimal <= 3
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 2,396 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.07 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +2.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,1710.962023 to a year ago8411.07Last year384Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 2396 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
2/1 or shorter in a handicap of 12+ runners. Nobody takes 2/1 about one of twelve handicappers without knowing something: the 'handicap good thing' is informed money.