Hypotheses · race-betting · H202-short-priced-favourite-in-a-big-handicap
H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 2396 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
2/1 or shorter in a handicap of 12+ runners. Nobody takes 2/1 about one of twelve handicappers without knowing something: the 'handicap good thing' is informed money.
The rule
is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 12 AND sp_decimal <= 3
Reads: is_handicap, field_size, sp_decimal
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 12 AND sp_decimal <= 3
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 2,396
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -10.2%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- +2.7%
- 384 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 35.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H202-short-priced-favourite-in-a-big-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 2396 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H202-short-priced-favourite-in-a-big-handicap (broad): info
· importer
New idea H202-short-priced-favourite-in-a-big-handicap: H202: short priced favourite in a big handicap (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.