Threads · race-pace · H206-favourite-in-a-race-with-no-pace
H206: favourite in a race with no pace
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.98 on 615 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H206: favourite in a race with no pace KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: the favourite when at most one of six or more known runners raced on the front end last time. A falsely run race is a lottery in the last two furlongs and the best horse loses its advantage.
is_favourite = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND n_front_last <= 1
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 615 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -3.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H206: favourite in a race with no pace
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3120.99Later half3030.97Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H206: favourite in a race with no pace Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.98 on 615 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the favourite when at most one of six or more known runners raced on the front end last time. A falsely run race is a lottery in the last two furlongs and the best horse loses its advantage.