Hypotheses · race-pace · H206-favourite-in-a-race-with-no-pace
H206: favourite in a race with no pace
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.98 on 615 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H206: favourite in a race with no pace” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
NEGATIVE: the favourite when at most one of six or more known runners raced on the front end last time. A falsely run race is a lottery in the last two furlongs and the best horse loses its advantage.
The rule
is_favourite = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND n_front_last <= 1
Reads: is_favourite, n_styled_last, n_front_last
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
is_favourite = 1 AND n_styled_last >= 6 AND n_front_last <= 1
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 615
- A/E
- 0.98
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -13.0%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -3.1%
- 611 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 33.5%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H206-favourite-in-a-race-with-no-pace Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.98 on 615 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H206-favourite-in-a-race-with-no-pace (broad): info
· importer
New idea H206-favourite-in-a-race-with-no-pace: H206: favourite in a race with no pace (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.