Threads · race-weights · H208-bottom-weight-in-a-wide-handicap
H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2712 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: bottom weight where the weights span two stone or more: usually out of the handicap proper, carrying more than its mark says, and outclassed; the light weight flatters it in the paper.
is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 2,712 bets, by period 1.23 · 0.88 · 0.80. info
Betfair SP return +9.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.23. Zone: all. On H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,1711.232023 to a year ago6620.88Last year8790.80Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2712 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: bottom weight where the weights span two stone or more: usually out of the handicap proper, carrying more than its mark says, and outclassed; the light weight flatters it in the paper.