Hypotheses · race-weights · H208-bottom-weight-in-a-wide-handicap

H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2712 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: bottom weight where the weights span two stone or more: usually out of the handicap proper, carrying more than its mark says, and outclassed; the light weight flatters it in the paper.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28

Reads: is_handicap, weight_rank_low, top_weight_lbs, bottom_weight_lbs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: is_handicap = 1 AND weight_rank_low = 1 AND (top_weight_lbs - bottom_weight_lbs) >= 28
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 2,712
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -32.4%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +9.9%; 874 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 5.9%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-221,1711.23

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H208-bottom-weight-in-a-wide-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 2712 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H208-bottom-weight-in-a-wide-handicap (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H208-bottom-weight-in-a-wide-handicap: H208: bottom weight in a wide handicap (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.