Threads · race-weights · H210-top-weight-in-a-fillies-handicap
H210: top weight in a fillies handicap
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.025 on 2323 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H210: top weight in a fillies handicap KILLED red
because Top weight in a handicap confined to fillies or mares on the Flat: these races are shallow, so the best filly is further clear of the rest than in an open handicap.
race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND sex_restriction IN ('fillies', 'fillies & mares') AND weight_rank_high = 1made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 2,323 bets, by period 1.07 · 1.04 · 0.87. info
Betfair SP return -3.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H210: top weight in a fillies handicap
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-229101.072023 to a year ago1,0351.04Last year3780.87Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H210: top weight in a fillies handicap Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.025 on 2323 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Top weight in a handicap confined to fillies or mares on the Flat: these races are shallow, so the best filly is further clear of the rest than in an open handicap.