Hypotheses · race-weights · H210-top-weight-in-a-fillies-handicap

H210: top weight in a fillies handicap

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.025 on 2323 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H210: top weight in a fillies handicap” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Top weight in a handicap confined to fillies or mares on the Flat: these races are shallow, so the best filly is further clear of the rest than in an open handicap.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND sex_restriction IN ('fillies', 'fillies & mares') AND weight_rank_high = 1

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, sex_restriction, weight_rank_high

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type = 'Flat' AND is_handicap = 1 AND sex_restriction IN ('fillies', 'fillies & mares') AND weight_rank_high = 1
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 2,323
A/E: 1.02; winners vs the prices
SP return: -8.4%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -3.2%; 376 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 16.2%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-229101.07

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H210-top-weight-in-a-fillies-handicap Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.025 on 2323 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H210-top-weight-in-a-fillies-handicap (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H210-top-weight-in-a-fillies-handicap: H210: top weight in a fillies handicap (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.