Threads · race-conditions · H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market

H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [2/1 or shorter] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1016 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: favourite for a maiden with six or more runs and three or more places. It has the best form in the race and has found a way to lose every time.
```
is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.09 on 1,180 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.11 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +3.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224041.06
2023 to a year ago5681.11
Last year2081.08
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.09 on 370 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.18 · 1.21. info
Betfair SP return +18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221560.93
2023 to a year ago1531.18
Last year611.21
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.09 on 810 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.09 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222481.13
2023 to a year ago4151.09
Last year1471.02
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
2/1 or shorter: A/E 1.11 on 1,016 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.12 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return +2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223251.10
2023 to a year ago4981.12
Last year193
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [2/1 or shorter] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1016 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: favourite for a maiden with six or more runs and three or more places. It has the best form in the race and has found a way to lose every time.

H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [2/1 or shorter] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1016 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: favourite for a maiden with six or more runs and three or more places. It has the best form in the race and has found a way to lose every time.
```
is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.09 on 1,180 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.11 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +3.9%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-224041.06
2023 to a year ago5681.11
Last year2081.08
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.09 on 370 bets, by period 0.93 · 1.18 · 1.21. info
Betfair SP return +18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221560.93
2023 to a year ago1531.18
Last year611.21
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.09 on 810 bets, by period 1.13 · 1.09 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-222481.13
2023 to a year ago4151.09
Last year1471.02
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
2/1 or shorter: A/E 1.11 on 1,016 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.12 · 1.07. info
Betfair SP return +2.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223251.10
2023 to a year ago4981.12
Last year193
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [2/1 or shorter] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1016 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: favourite for a maiden with six or more runs and three or more places. It has the best form in the race and has found a way to lose every time.