H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: favourite for a maiden with six or more runs and three or more places. It has the best form in the race and has found a way to lose every time.

The rule

is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3

Reads: is_maiden, is_favourite, prior_runs, prior_places

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "2/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(is_maiden = 1 AND is_favourite = 1 AND prior_runs >= 6 AND prior_places >= 3) AND (sp_decimal <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info 2/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,016

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-0.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.3%

193 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 51.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [2/1 or shorter] AMBER A/E 1.106 on 1016 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market (2/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H211-exposed-maiden-at-the-head-of-the-market: H211: exposed maiden at the head of the market (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.