H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap PROMISING amber

   because Four or fewer hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle of 16+ runners: the big-field handicap is where an unexposed horse's mark is furthest behind its ability, and the size of the field keeps its price up.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 5,726 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.16 · 1.16. info

   Betfair SP return +71.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223,1640.97

   2023 to a year ago1,8841.16

   Last year678

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   aged six or less: A/E 1.11 on 3,836 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.22 · 1.27. info

   Betfair SP return +77.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.27. Zone: all. On H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,7970.97

   2023 to a year ago1,4701.22

   Last year569

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.03 on 2,119 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.13 · 1.02. info

   Betfair SP return +33.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.13. Zone: all. On H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1640.97

   2023 to a year ago7101.13

   Last year245

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   class 3 or better: A/E 1.06 on 643 bets, by period 0.94 · 1.16 · 1.11. info

   Betfair SP return +1.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-223280.94

   2023 to a year ago2381.16

   Last year77

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [aged six or less] AMBER A/E 1.107 on 3836 bets (broad AMBER)