H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap

Mechanism and rationale

Four or fewer hurdle runs in a handicap hurdle of 16+ runners: the big-field handicap is where an unexposed horse's mark is furthest behind its ability, and the size of the field keeps its price up.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, field_size, hurdle_runs, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "aged six or less",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (age <= 6)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "class 3 or better",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND field_size >= 16 AND hurdle_runs <= 4 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_class <= 3)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info class 3 or better · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

643

A/E

1.06

winners vs the prices

SP return

-10.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+1.9%

77 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 5.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [aged six or less] AMBER A/E 1.107 on 3836 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap (class 3 or better): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap (aged six or less): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H212-unexposed-hurdler-in-a-big-field-handicap: H212: unexposed hurdler in a big field handicap (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.