Threads · race-riders · H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race
H214: best rider in an amateur race
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.822 on 348 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H214: best rider in an amateur race PROMISING negative
because In a race confined to amateurs, a rider with 40+ rides and a 15%+ strike rate. The gap between the best and the worst rider is far wider than in any professional race, and the market prices the horse.
rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 1,579 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.05 · 0.87. info
Betfair SP return -11.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H214: best rider in an amateur race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225380.892023 to a year ago7471.05Last year2940.87Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.82 on 348 bets, by period 0.74 · 0.89 · 0.69. info
Betfair SP return -33.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H214: best rider in an amateur race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22880.742023 to a year ago2010.89Last year590.69Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.92 on 625 bets, by period 0.85 · 1.04 · 0.73. info
Betfair SP return -37.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.73 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H214: best rider in an amateur race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221570.852023 to a year ago3441.04Last year1240.73Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.84 on 896 bets, by period 0.66 · 0.96 · 0.70. info
Betfair SP return -37.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H214: best rider in an amateur race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222000.662023 to a year ago5210.96Last year1750.70Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.97 on 1,331 bets, by period 0.89 · 1.06 · 0.90. info
Betfair SP return +7.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H214: best rider in an amateur race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224720.892023 to a year ago6161.06Last year2430.90Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H214: best rider in an amateur race Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.822 on 348 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
In a race confined to amateurs, a rider with 40+ rides and a 15%+ strike rate. The gap between the best and the worst rider is far wider than in any professional race, and the market prices the horse.