H214: best rider in an amateur race

Mechanism and rationale

In a race confined to amateurs, a rider with 40+ rides and a 15%+ strike rate. The gap between the best and the worst rider is far wider than in any professional race, and the market prices the horse.

The rule

rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15

Reads: rider_restriction, jockey_runs, jockey_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('amateur', 'lady', 'conditional & amateur') AND jockey_runs >= 40 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 15) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,331

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.5%

241 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 22.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.822 on 348 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H214-best-rider-in-an-amateur-race: H214: best rider in an amateur race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.