Threads · race-riders · H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race

H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate] NEGATIVE A/E 0.877 on 846 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race PROMISING negative
because In a race confined to apprentices or conditionals, a rider with 400+ rides: nearly out of his claim and riding against boys having their twentieth ride.
```
rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 5,607 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.99 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -1.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-229540.90
2023 to a year ago3,4340.99
Last year1,219
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate: A/E 0.88 on 846 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.91 · 0.76. info
Betfair SP return -39.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221930.92
2023 to a year ago4650.91
Last year188
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.96 on 1,344 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.95 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +43.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.78 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221490.78
2023 to a year ago8650.95
Last year330
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.96 on 4,263 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.00 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return -18.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228050.92
2023 to a year ago2,5691.00
Last year889
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate] NEGATIVE A/E 0.877 on 846 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

In a race confined to apprentices or conditionals, a rider with 400+ rides: nearly out of his claim and riding against boys having their twentieth ride.

H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate] NEGATIVE A/E 0.877 on 846 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race PROMISING negative
because In a race confined to apprentices or conditionals, a rider with 400+ rides: nearly out of his claim and riding against boys having their twentieth ride.
```
rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 5,607 bets, by period 0.90 · 0.99 · 0.94. info
Betfair SP return -1.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-229540.90
2023 to a year ago3,4340.99
Last year1,219
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate: A/E 0.88 on 846 bets, by period 0.92 · 0.91 · 0.76. info
Betfair SP return -39.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221930.92
2023 to a year ago4650.91
Last year188
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.96 on 1,344 bets, by period 0.78 · 0.95 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +43.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.78 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221490.78
2023 to a year ago8650.95
Last year330
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.96 on 4,263 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.00 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return -18.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-228050.92
2023 to a year ago2,5691.00
Last year889
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate] NEGATIVE A/E 0.877 on 846 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

In a race confined to apprentices or conditionals, a rider with 400+ rides: nearly out of his claim and riding against boys having their twentieth ride.