H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race

Mechanism and rationale

In a race confined to apprentices or conditionals, a rider with 400+ rides: nearly out of his claim and riding against boys having their twentieth ride.

The rule

rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400

Reads: rider_restriction, jockey_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400) AND (jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 12)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(rider_restriction IN ('apprentice', 'conditional') AND jockey_runs >= 400) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,263

A/E

0.96

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-18.4%

889 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate] NEGATIVE A/E 0.877 on 846 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race (a winning rider too: 12%+ strike rate): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H215-experienced-rider-in-an-apprentice-or-conditional-race: H215: experienced rider in an apprentice or conditional race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.