H216: mares against the geldings over fences

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H216: mares against the geldings over fences PROMISING negative

   because A mare in a chase open to all. She gets 7lb from the geldings; few mares go chasing, so those that do are the tough ones, and the allowance was set for the average mare.

   race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.81 on 1,276 bets, by period 0.82 · 0.81. info

   Betfair SP return -28.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H216: mares against the geldings over fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7970.82

   Later half4790.81

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.86 on 1,044 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -21.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H216: mares against the geldings over fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half6460.87

   Later half3980.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not a handicap: A/E 0.65 on 232 bets, by period 0.64 · 0.67. info

   Betfair SP return -56.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H216: mares against the geldings over fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1510.64

   Later half810.67

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.84 on 899 bets, by period 0.84 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -18.1%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H216: mares against the geldings over fences

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5460.84

   Later half3530.84

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H216: mares against the geldings over fences Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.815 on 1276 bets (broad NEGATIVE)