H216: mares against the geldings over fences

Mechanism and rationale

A mare in a chase open to all. She gets 7lb from the geldings; few mares go chasing, so those that do are the tough ones, and the allowance was set for the average mare.

The rule

race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL

Reads: race_type, sex, sex_restriction

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not a handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL) AND (is_handicap = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Chase' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

899

A/E

0.84

winners vs the prices

SP return

-31.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-18.1%

896 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [broad] NEGATIVE A/E 0.815 on 1276 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences (not a handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H216-mares-against-the-geldings-over-fences: H216: mares against the geldings over fences (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.