Threads · season-flat · H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season

H217: over the top at the end of the turf season

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [first three in the betting] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 561 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H217: over the top at the end of the turf season PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: turf Flat in October and November, nine or more runs in the last 150 days. A long season catches up as the ground goes; the recent form figures that set the price were earned in summer.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 1,610 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.16 · 0.85. info
Betfair SP return -7.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225951.04
2023 to a year ago6821.16
Last year3330.85
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
first three in the betting: A/E 1.11 on 561 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.22 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return +4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.22. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221971.09
2023 to a year ago2351.22
Last year129
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.02 on 1,529 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.15 · 0.85. info
Betfair SP return -5.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225380.97
2023 to a year ago6651.15
Last year326
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 1.09 on 969 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.21 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -22.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223890.97
2023 to a year ago4521.21
Last year1281.01
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H217: over the top at the end of the turf season Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [first three in the betting] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 561 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: turf Flat in October and November, nine or more runs in the last 150 days. A long season catches up as the ground goes; the recent form figures that set the price were earned in summer.

H217: over the top at the end of the turf season

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [first three in the betting] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 561 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H217: over the top at the end of the turf season PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: turf Flat in October and November, nine or more runs in the last 150 days. A long season catches up as the ground goes; the recent form figures that set the price were earned in summer.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 1,610 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.16 · 0.85. info
Betfair SP return -7.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.16. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225951.04
2023 to a year ago6821.16
Last year3330.85
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
first three in the betting: A/E 1.11 on 561 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.22 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return +4.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.22. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221971.09
2023 to a year ago2351.22
Last year129
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.02 on 1,529 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.15 · 0.85. info
Betfair SP return -5.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.85 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-225380.97
2023 to a year ago6651.15
Last year326
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 1.09 on 969 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.21 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -22.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H217: over the top at the end of the turf season
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-223890.97
2023 to a year ago4521.21
Last year1281.01
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H217: over the top at the end of the turf season Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [first three in the betting] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 561 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: turf Flat in October and November, nine or more runs in the last 150 days. A long season catches up as the ground goes; the recent form figures that set the price were earned in summer.