H217: over the top at the end of the turf season

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: turf Flat in October and November, nine or more runs in the last 150 days. A long season catches up as the ground goes; the recent form figures that set the price were earned in summer.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9

Reads: race_type, surface, month, runs_150

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "first three in the betting",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9) AND (sp_rank <= 3)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND month IN (10, 11) AND runs_150 >= 9) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info soft or heavy · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

969

A/E

1.09

winners vs the prices

SP return

-20.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-22.3%

125 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [first three in the betting] AMBER A/E 1.109 on 561 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season (first three in the betting): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H217-over-the-top-at-the-end-of-the-turf-season: H217: over the top at the end of the turf season (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.