Threads · season-flat · H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring

H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.143 on 292 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: turf sprint (6f or less) in March and April, aged four or more, first run for 150+ days, in the first three in the betting. Older sprinters come to hand with the sun; last year's form makes the price.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 353 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.07 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return -10.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221241.15
2023 to a year ago1851.07
Last year440.95
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.14 on 292 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.17. info
Betfair SP return +3.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221091.10
2023 to a year ago1451.17
Last year38–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 0.92 on 100 bets, by period 1.06. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2216–
2023 to a year ago741.06
Last year10–
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.143 on 292 bets (broad AMBER)

Where it started

NEGATIVE: turf sprint (6f or less) in March and April, aged four or more, first run for 150+ days, in the first three in the betting. Older sprinters come to hand with the sun; last year's form makes the price.

H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.143 on 292 bets (broad AMBER)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring PROMISING amber
because NEGATIVE: turf sprint (6f or less) in March and April, aged four or more, first run for 150+ days, in the first three in the betting. Older sprinters come to hand with the sun; last year's form makes the price.
```
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.08 on 353 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.07 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return -10.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221241.15
2023 to a year ago1851.07
Last year440.95
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.14 on 292 bets, by period 1.10 · 1.17. info
Betfair SP return +3.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-221091.10
2023 to a year ago1451.17
Last year38–
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 0.92 on 100 bets, by period 1.06. info
Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
2020-2216–
2023 to a year ago741.06
Last year10–
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.143 on 292 bets (broad AMBER)