H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: turf sprint (6f or less) in March and April, aged four or more, first run for 150+ days, in the first three in the betting. Older sprinters come to hand with the sun; last year's form makes the price.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3

Reads: race_type, surface, distance_yards, month, age, days_since_last_run, sp_rank

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'Turf' AND distance_yards <= 1340 AND month IN (3, 4) AND age >= 4 AND days_since_last_run >= 150 AND sp_rank <= 3) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info soft or heavy · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

100

A/E

0.92

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

10 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.0%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [handicap] AMBER A/E 1.143 on 292 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H219-older-sprinter-first-time-out-in-the-spring: H219: older sprinter first time out in the spring (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.