Threads · season-flat · H220-fillies-and-mares-against-males-in-the-autumn
H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 4881 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn KILLED red
because Fillies and mares aged three or more in Flat races open to both sexes from August to October: the old belief that they come to themselves late in the year, when the colts have gone over the top.
race_type = 'Flat' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL AND age >= 3 AND month IN (8, 9, 10)made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 4,881 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -2.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half9201.05Later half3,9610.97Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 4881 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Fillies and mares aged three or more in Flat races open to both sexes from August to October: the old belief that they come to themselves late in the year, when the colts have gone over the top.