Hypotheses · season-flat · H220-fillies-and-mares-against-males-in-the-autumn
H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 4881 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Fillies and mares aged three or more in Flat races open to both sexes from August to October: the old belief that they come to themselves late in the year, when the colts have gone over the top.
The rule
race_type = 'Flat' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL AND age >= 3 AND month IN (8, 9, 10)Reads: race_type, sex, sex_restriction, age, month
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
race_type = 'Flat' AND sex IN ('F', 'M') AND sex_restriction IS NULL AND age >= 3 AND month IN (8, 9, 10)
- Kind
remarks
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 4,881
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -2.4%
- 4,775 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 8.9%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H220-fillies-and-mares-against-males-in-the-autumn Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.988 on 4881 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H220-fillies-and-mares-against-males-in-the-autumn (broad): info
· importer
New idea H220-fillies-and-mares-against-males-in-the-autumn: H220: fillies and mares against males in the autumn (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.