Threads · season-aw · H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather
H221: busy horse on the winter all weather
- Hypotheses
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- Best rung
- Discovery
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- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (H221: busy horse on the winter all weather) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.89 on 2059 bets (periods 0.80 / 0.90 / 1.02).
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H221: busy horse on the winter all weather KILLED red
because All-weather, December to February, five or more runs in the last 60 days. The surface takes little out of them and a horse run this often is sound and in form; the market expects it to go off the boil.
race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.89 on 2,059 bets, by period 0.80 · 0.90 · 1.02. info
Betfair SP return -4.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H221: busy horse on the winter all weather
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-227030.802023 to a year ago8760.90Last year480Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.89 on 1,814 bets, by period 0.77 · 0.88 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return +1.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.77 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H221: busy horse on the winter all weather
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226200.772023 to a year ago7670.88Last year4271.06Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.89 on 1,747 bets, by period 0.79 · 0.88 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -1.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.79 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H221: busy horse on the winter all weather
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225860.792023 to a year ago7460.88Last year4151.01Tested15 Oct, 23:10
class 6: A/E 0.95 on 1,033 bets, by period 0.89 · 0.89 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +0.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H221: busy horse on the winter all weather
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223010.892023 to a year ago4680.89Last year264Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H221: busy horse on the winter all weather Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [class 6] RED A/E 0.948 on 1033 bets (broad RED)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (H221: busy horse on the winter all weather) was predicted positive but went the other way in the earlier research: A/E 0.89 on 2059 bets (periods 0.80 / 0.90 / 1.02).
surprise0.40waiting for a reasoning passfrom H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather
Where it started
All-weather, December to February, five or more runs in the last 60 days. The surface takes little out of them and a horse run this often is sound and in form; the market expects it to go off the boil.