H221: busy horse on the winter all weather

Mechanism and rationale

All-weather, December to February, five or more runs in the last 60 days. The surface takes little out of them and a horse run this often is sound and in form; the market expects it to go off the boil.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5

Reads: race_type, surface, month, runs_60

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "class 6",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (12, 1, 2) AND runs_60 >= 5) AND (race_class = 6)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info class 6 · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,033

A/E

0.95

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+0.3%

264 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 13.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [class 6] RED A/E 0.948 on 1033 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (class 6): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H221-busy-horse-on-the-winter-all-weather: H221: busy horse on the winter all weather (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.