Threads · season-jumps · H222-summer-form-on-autumn-soft-ground
H222: summer form on autumn soft ground
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.992 on 1625 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H222: summer form on autumn soft ground KILLED red
because NEGATIVE: jumps in October and November on soft or heavy, five or more runs in the last 150 days. A summer jumper's form was earned on fast ground in small fields; now the ground has gone and the winter horses are back.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (10, 11) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND runs_150 >= 5made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.99 on 1,625 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.03 · 1.04. info
Betfair SP return -16.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H222: summer form on autumn soft ground
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-229020.962023 to a year ago5221.03Last year2011.04Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H222: summer form on autumn soft ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.992 on 1625 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
NEGATIVE: jumps in October and November on soft or heavy, five or more runs in the last 150 days. A summer jumper's form was earned on fast ground in small fields; now the ground has gone and the winter horses are back.