Hypotheses · season-jumps · H222-summer-form-on-autumn-soft-ground

H222: summer form on autumn soft ground

KILLEDredFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.992 on 1625 bets (broad RED)

Starts the thread “H222: summer form on autumn soft ground” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the overnight batches
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: jumps in October and November on soft or heavy, five or more runs in the last 150 days. A summer jumper's form was earned on fast ground in small fields; now the ground has gone and the winter horses are back.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (10, 11) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND runs_150 >= 5

Reads: race_type, month, going_group, runs_150

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (10, 11) AND going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy') AND runs_150 >= 5
Kind: all
Origin: research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
Refinements: none
Tier: C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 1,625
A/E: 0.99; winners vs the prices
SP return: -35.0%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: -16.7%; 201 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 8.8%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-229020.96

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

H222-summer-form-on-autumn-soft-ground Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.992 on 1625 bets (broad RED)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for H222-summer-form-on-autumn-soft-ground (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea H222-summer-form-on-autumn-soft-ground: H222: summer form on autumn soft ground (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.