Threads · season-jumps · H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june
H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june
- Hypotheses
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- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [hurdle] AMBER A/E 1.094 on 510 bets (broad AMBER)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june KILLED amber
because Jumps novice and maiden races in May and June from a yard with an 18%+ strike rate over 500+ runners: the season proper is over, most good horses are at grass, and the big yards keep a few going to pick up weak races.
race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (5, 6) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND is_handicap = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 500 AND trainer_wins * 100 >= trainer_runs * 18made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.07 on 557 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.09 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -25.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.09. Zone: all. On H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222181.092023 to a year ago2361.09Last year1030.98Tested15 Oct, 23:10
hurdle: A/E 1.09 on 510 bets, by period 1.12 · 1.10 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return -23.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.11). Zone: all. On H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221871.122023 to a year ago2231.10Last year1001.01Tested15 Oct, 23:10
not the favourite: A/E 0.98 on 331 bets, by period 1.21 · 0.74 · 0.80. info
Betfair SP return -41.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.74 to 1.21. Zone: all. On H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221281.212023 to a year ago1390.74Last year640.80Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [hurdle] AMBER A/E 1.094 on 510 bets (broad AMBER)
Where it started
Jumps novice and maiden races in May and June from a yard with an 18%+ strike rate over 500+ runners: the season proper is over, most good horses are at grass, and the big yards keep a few going to pick up weak races.