H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june

Mechanism and rationale

Jumps novice and maiden races in May and June from a yard with an 18%+ strike rate over 500+ runners: the season proper is over, most good horses are at grass, and the big yards keep a few going to pick up weak races.

The rule

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (5, 6) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND is_handicap = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 500 AND trainer_wins * 100 >= trainer_runs * 18

Reads: race_type, month, is_novice, is_maiden, is_handicap, trainer_runs, trainer_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (5, 6) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND is_handicap = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 500 AND trainer_wins * 100 >= trainer_runs * 18

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "hurdle",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (5, 6) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND is_handicap = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 500 AND trainer_wins * 100 >= trainer_runs * 18) AND (race_type = 'Hurdle')"
  },
  {
    "name": "not the favourite",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND month IN (5, 6) AND (is_novice = 1 OR is_maiden = 1) AND is_handicap = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 500 AND trainer_wins * 100 >= trainer_runs * 18) AND (sp_rank >= 2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info not the favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

331

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-29.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-41.5%

64 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [hurdle] AMBER A/E 1.094 on 510 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june (not the favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june (hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H226-strong-yards-mopping-up-in-may-and-june: H226: strong yards mopping up in may and june (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.