Threads · season-public · H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting
H229: favourite at a big public meeting
- Hypotheses
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- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
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- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (H229: favourite at a big public meeting) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 2065 bets (periods 1.03 / 1.06 / 1.08); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H229: favourite at a big public meeting PROMISING green
because NEGATIVE: the favourite at the meetings where the once-a-year public bets: Cheltenham in March, Aintree in April, Royal Ascot, Goodwood and York in high summer, British jumping from Boxing Day to New Year's Day. Their money goes on the name at the head of the market.
is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.05 on 2,065 bets, by period 1.03 · 1.06 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return +11.3%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.05). Zone: all. On H229: favourite at a big public meeting
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-228791.032023 to a year ago8431.06Last year3431.08Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Cheltenham in March: A/E 0.98 on 213 bets, by period 1.04 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -15.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.04. Zone: all. On H229: favourite at a big public meeting
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22741.042023 to a year ago1010.98Last year38–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Royal Ascot: A/E 1.13 on 229 bets, by period 1.09 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +18.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On H229: favourite at a big public meeting
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-22761.092023 to a year ago1151.13Last year38–Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Boxing Day to New Year: A/E 1.00 on 871 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.00 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return -4.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.02. Zone: all. On H229: favourite at a big public meeting
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-224181.022023 to a year ago2981.00Last year1550.97Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.04 on 1,172 bets, by period 0.95 · 1.11 · 1.11. info
Betfair SP return +15.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H229: favourite at a big public meeting
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-225100.952023 to a year ago4651.11Last year1971.11Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H229: favourite at a big public meeting Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.054 on 2065 bets (broad GREEN)
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (H229: favourite at a big public meeting) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.05 on 2065 bets (periods 1.03 / 1.06 / 1.08); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting
Where it started
NEGATIVE: the favourite at the meetings where the once-a-year public bets: Cheltenham in March, Aintree in April, Royal Ascot, Goodwood and York in high summer, British jumping from Boxing Day to New Year's Day. Their money goes on the name at the head of the market.